Tamaz Khunjua: We are incorrectly counting the average death rate from Covid and the percentage of positive tests
Today one interesting detail caught my attention. In addition to incorrectly averaging mortality, the Ministry of Health also incorrectly calculates the percentage of positive tests. With this calculation, it becomes clear why they did 10-12 thousand tests a day in the summer. In general, their entire statistics are distorted and do not reflect absolutely anything, and are rather misleading! But I was completely struck by another, very characteristic thing, which is already very serious. And I cannot but tell about it. Today, 2% of patients are in critical condition. This can be believed, since the statistics of the severity of the covid course is generally known and varies little from country to country (in fact, it correlates mainly with the demographic pyramid). So, the real mortality rate in recent days has also been kept at the level of 2%. Hence the conclusion suggests itself that the health care system can only deal with death registration. That is, once in the critical zone, there is an almost 100% chance of dying. Or quite simply – there is no healthcare system. The answer may be different. The real number of infected people is two to three times higher (too high mortality). Which is also not good news. They can make it to the elections, without shocks. But it all depends on the society, of course. And from those who will offer the society a way out. Here populism is indispensable.
P.S. In the attached pictures, in addition to the clipping from the official NCDC website, there is also my table with the calculation of the mortality rate. I just want to remind you that the last value of 0.49 was obtained in just one day. That is, the real value for the period will be typed only after 4 days. Again, judging by the first day, the value will be greater than 2.
Тамаз Хунджуа, (Tamaz Khunjua) Georgian Strategic Analysis Center