Final results of IPSOS exit poll commissioned by Mtavari TV channel
IPSOS exit poll results at 20:00
Georgian Dream 41%
UNM- United opposition 33%
European Georgia 5%
Strategy Aghmashenebeli 3%
Alliance of patriots 2%
Labor party 2%
Nino Burjanadze- United Georgia 1%
So let’s start with why it is necessary to believe these figures, and not the exit polls of Imedi or Rustavi 2. Elementary – the turnout was 1.97 million voters, this is more than in 2016, though less than in 2012. But neither in 2016 nor in 2012 there was a covid, which was reasonably frightened by the population over the past two weeks. Yes, and in general there was no need to scare, almost every one of us knows that calling an ambulance is a big problem, getting to the hospital, even if God forbid, you are sick with covid, it is also a problem. Almost everyone has friends who are sick or have had covid. I’m not talking about death. In such conditions, everyone, everyone who did not go to the polls on the order of the authorities, should have been very motivated. Moreover, it is easy to guess that they are motivated by a not burning desire to support the authorities.
Throughout the day, thanks to the media and social networks, we observed how people sat with lists at almost all polling stations in the regions and marked those who came, saw minibuses that brought supporters of the authorities in an organized manner. The journalists even managed to film several episodes of outright bribery of voters. Not to mention the active participation of the “street” in these elections on the side of the authorities. At the same time, the authorities were noticeably nervous, this could be seen with the naked eye.
Finally, these results are absolutely correlated with the results of exit polls by majoritarian districts. Imagine the situation. when a voter massively votes for the ruling party and for an opposition candidate is somewhat difficult, this is possible only in exceptional cases.
Now let’s look at the exit poll results in the majoritarian districts.
|1||Krtsanisi||Beka Odisharia||35%||Shalva Shavgulidze||46%|
|2||Vake||Nodar Turdzeladze||33%||Elene Khoshtaria||47%|
|3||Saburtalo||David Sergeenko||35%||Aleko Elisashvili/ Badri Japaridze||21% / 19%|
|4||Isani||Kakha Kakhishvili||35%||Khatia Dekanoidze||32%|
|5||Samgori||Sozar Subari||33%||Levan Khabeishvili||49%|
|6||Didube-Chugureti||Giorgi Volski||33%||Zurab Japaridze||35%|
|7||Nadzaladevi||Mikeil Kavelashvili||35%||Shalva Natelashvili||33%|
|8||Gldani||Levan Kobiashvili||39%||Nika melia||53%|
|9||Gurjaani, Sagarejo||David Songulashvili||43%||Levan Bezhashvili||38%|
|10||Telavi, Akhmeta, Kvareli, Lagodekhi||Irakli Kadagishvili||45%||Giorgi Botkoveli||42%|
|11||Mtskheta, Kazbegi, Dusheti, Tianeti||Kereselidze||39%||Caesar Chocheli||45%|
|12||Rustavi, Gradabani||Nino Latsabidze||31%||David Kirkitadze||51%|
|13||Marneuli, Gardabani||Zaur Dargali||49%||Azer Suleimanov||36%|
|14||Bolnisi, Dmanisi, Tetritskaro, Tsalka||Gogi Meshveliani||56%||Kakha Okriashvili||37%|
|15||Gori||Georgi Khodjevanishvili||39%||Badri Basishvili||39%|
|16||Khashuri, Kareli||Dumbadze||37%||Nato Chkeidze||46%|
|17||Akhaltsikhe, Borjomi Aspindza||Anton Obolashvili||58%||Chitashvili||30%|
|18||Akhalkalaki, Ninotsminda||Samvel Manukian||75%||Melik Raisian||5%|
|19||Ambrolauri, Oni, Tsageri, Lentekhi||Gocha enukidzе||61%||Dilar Khabuliani||15%|
|20||Sachkhere, Chiatura, Kharagauli||Paata Kvizhinadzе||59%||David Kapanadze||23%|
|21||Zetafoni, Baghdadi, Terjola, Tkibuli||Bezhan Tsakadze||49%||Gocha Getsadze||25%|
|22||Samtredia, Tskhaltubo, Vani, Khoni||Givi Chichinadze||46%||Nanuka Zhorzholiani||36%|
|23||Kutaisi||Zaza Lominadze||29%||Grigol Vashadze||50%|
|24||Ozurgeti, Lanchkhuti, Chokhatauri||Vasil Chigogidzе||52%||Manuchar Kvirkvelia||16%|
|25||Abasha, Martvili, Tsalenjikha, Chkhorotsku||Aleksandre|
|26||Poti, Khobi, Senaki||Irakli Khakhubia||49%||Murtaz Zodelava||32%|
|27||Zugdidi||Irakli Chikovani||35%||Malkhaz Jalagonia||49%|
|28||Batumi||Resan Konteslidze||35%||Levan Varshalomidze||39%|
|29||Kobuleti||Zaal Mikeladze||54%||Bondo Tedoradze||35%|
|30||Khelvachauri, Keda, Shuakhevi, Khulo||Anzor Bokvadze||46%||Misha Bolkvadze||32%|
In the last elections, Georgian Dream won practically no problems in all majoritarian districts. Today the situation is somewhat different, to put it mildly. According to the IPSOS exit poll, the ruling party managed to win only in seven out of thirty constituencies, the opposition wins in two. Georgian Dream has an advantage in 11 constituencies, the opposition in 9. This means that even if Dream gets 18 majoritarian members into parliament, it will not have enough votes to form a coalition, given the results on party lists. Moreover, in the event that the ruling party fails to gain a majority on party lists, one can absolutely accurately predict the victory of the opposition in the overwhelming majority of constituencies, if not all. However, this is true in the opposite direction.
And now the most important thing – despite the fact that the results presented here are close to the real ones, it is far from the fact that the official results will be exactly like that. And here everything depends solely on the opposition, more precisely on the United National Movement, the only party that has a serious party infrastructure in the regions. Now, as I write these lines on the clock, one hour twenty minutes, and the CEC has not yet published a single bulletin. But information about attempts at falsification, and in some areas “unexpectedly” turn off the light. The fact that the CEC is delaying publication is another sign that the authorities do not know what to do. But does the opposition know what to do? This is the main question, on the answer to which the future of the country depends.
Гела Васадзе, (Gela Vasadze) Georgian Strategic Analysis Center GSAC