GSAC Analytics

Final results of IPSOS exit poll commissioned by Mtavari TV channel

Final results of IPSOS exit poll commissioned by Mtavari TV channel

IPSOS exit poll results at 20:00

Party lists:

Georgian Dream 41%

UNM- United opposition 33%

European Georgia 5%

Lelo 4%

Strategy Aghmashenebeli 3%

Girchi 3%

Alliance of patriots 2%

Labor party 2%

Nino Burjanadze- United Georgia 1%

Citizens 1%

So let’s start with why it is necessary to believe these figures, and not the exit polls of Imedi or Rustavi 2. Elementary – the turnout was 1.97 million voters, this is more than in 2016, though less than in 2012. But neither in 2016 nor in 2012 there was a covid, which was reasonably frightened by the population over the past two weeks. Yes, and in general there was no need to scare, almost every one of us knows that calling an ambulance is a big problem, getting to the hospital, even if God forbid, you are sick with covid, it is also a problem. Almost everyone has friends who are sick or have had covid. I’m not talking about death. In such conditions, everyone, everyone who did not go to the polls on the order of the authorities, should have been very motivated. Moreover, it is easy to guess that they are motivated by a not burning desire to support the authorities.

Throughout the day, thanks to the media and social networks, we observed how people sat with lists at almost all polling stations in the regions and marked those who came, saw minibuses that brought supporters of the authorities in an organized manner. The journalists even managed to film several episodes of outright bribery of voters. Not to mention the active participation of the “street” in these elections on the side of the authorities. At the same time, the authorities were noticeably nervous, this could be seen with the naked eye.

Finally, these results are absolutely correlated with the results of exit polls by majoritarian districts. Imagine the situation. when a voter massively votes for the ruling party and for an opposition candidate is somewhat difficult, this is possible only in exceptional cases.

Now let’s look at the exit poll results in the majoritarian districts.

Georgian DreamOpposition
1KrtsanisiBeka Odisharia35%Shalva Shavgulidze46%
2VakeNodar Turdzeladze33%Elene Khoshtaria47%
3SaburtaloDavid Sergeenko35%Aleko Elisashvili/ Badri Japaridze21% / 19%
4IsaniKakha Kakhishvili35%Khatia Dekanoidze32%
5SamgoriSozar Subari33%Levan Khabeishvili49%
6Didube-ChuguretiGiorgi Volski33%Zurab Japaridze35%
7NadzaladeviMikeil Kavelashvili35%Shalva Natelashvili33%
8GldaniLevan Kobiashvili39%Nika melia53%
9Gurjaani, SagarejoDavid Songulashvili43%Levan Bezhashvili38%
10Telavi, Akhmeta, Kvareli, LagodekhiIrakli Kadagishvili45%Giorgi Botkoveli42%
11Mtskheta, Kazbegi, Dusheti, TianetiKereselidze39%Caesar Chocheli45%
12Rustavi, GradabaniNino Latsabidze31%David Kirkitadze51%
13Marneuli, GardabaniZaur Dargali49%Azer Suleimanov36%
14Bolnisi, Dmanisi, Tetritskaro, TsalkaGogi Meshveliani56%Kakha Okriashvili37%
15GoriGeorgi Khodjevanishvili39%Badri Basishvili39%
16Khashuri, KareliDumbadze37%Nato Chkeidze46%
17Akhaltsikhe, Borjomi AspindzaAnton Obolashvili58%Chitashvili30%
18Akhalkalaki, NinotsmindaSamvel Manukian75%Melik Raisian5%
19Ambrolauri, Oni, Tsageri, LentekhiGocha enukidzе61%Dilar Khabuliani15%
20Sachkhere, Chiatura, KharagauliPaata Kvizhinadzе59%David Kapanadze23%
21Zetafoni, Baghdadi, Terjola, TkibuliBezhan Tsakadze49%Gocha Getsadze25%
22Samtredia, Tskhaltubo, Vani, KhoniGivi Chichinadze46%Nanuka Zhorzholiani36%
23KutaisiZaza Lominadze29%Grigol Vashadze50%
24Ozurgeti, Lanchkhuti, ChokhatauriVasil Chigogidzе52%Manuchar Kvirkvelia16%
25Abasha, Martvili, Tsalenjikha, ChkhorotskuAleksandre
motselaria
45%Roman Pipia41%
26Poti, Khobi, SenakiIrakli Khakhubia49%Murtaz Zodelava32%
27ZugdidiIrakli Chikovani35%Malkhaz Jalagonia49%
28BatumiResan Konteslidze35%Levan Varshalomidze39%
29KobuletiZaal Mikeladze54%Bondo Tedoradze35%
30Khelvachauri, Keda, Shuakhevi, KhuloAnzor Bokvadze46%Misha Bolkvadze32%

In the last elections, Georgian Dream won practically no problems in all majoritarian districts. Today the situation is somewhat different, to put it mildly. According to the IPSOS exit poll, the ruling party managed to win only in seven out of thirty constituencies, the opposition wins in two. Georgian Dream has an advantage in 11 constituencies, the opposition in 9. This means that even if Dream gets 18 majoritarian members into parliament, it will not have enough votes to form a coalition, given the results on party lists. Moreover, in the event that the ruling party fails to gain a majority on party lists, one can absolutely accurately predict the victory of the opposition in the overwhelming majority of constituencies, if not all. However, this is true in the opposite direction.

And now the most important thing – despite the fact that the results presented here are close to the real ones, it is far from the fact that the official results will be exactly like that. And here everything depends solely on the opposition, more precisely on the United National Movement, the only party that has a serious party infrastructure in the regions. Now, as I write these lines on the clock, one hour twenty minutes, and the CEC has not yet published a single bulletin. But information about attempts at falsification, and in some areas “unexpectedly” turn off the light. The fact that the CEC is delaying publication is another sign that the authorities do not know what to do. But does the opposition know what to do? This is the main question, on the answer to which the future of the country depends.

Гела Васадзе, (Gela Vasadze) Georgian Strategic Analysis Center GSAC