Final results of IPSOS exit poll commissioned by Mtavari TV channel

2 ноября, 2020

IPSOS exit poll results at 20:00

Party lists:

Georgian Dream 41%

UNM- United opposition 33%

European Georgia 5%

Lelo 4%

Strategy Aghmashenebeli 3%

Girchi 3%

Alliance of patriots 2%

Labor party 2%

Nino Burjanadze- United Georgia 1%

Citizens 1%

So let’s start with why it is necessary to believe these figures, and not the exit polls of Imedi or Rustavi 2. Elementary – the turnout was 1.97 million voters, this is more than in 2016, though less than in 2012. But neither in 2016 nor in 2012 there was a covid, which was reasonably frightened by the population over the past two weeks. Yes, and in general there was no need to scare, almost every one of us knows that calling an ambulance is a big problem, getting to the hospital, even if God forbid, you are sick with covid, it is also a problem. Almost everyone has friends who are sick or have had covid. I’m not talking about death. In such conditions, everyone, everyone who did not go to the polls on the order of the authorities, should have been very motivated. Moreover, it is easy to guess that they are motivated by a not burning desire to support the authorities.

Throughout the day, thanks to the media and social networks, we observed how people sat with lists at almost all polling stations in the regions and marked those who came, saw minibuses that brought supporters of the authorities in an organized manner. The journalists even managed to film several episodes of outright bribery of voters. Not to mention the active participation of the “street” in these elections on the side of the authorities. At the same time, the authorities were noticeably nervous, this could be seen with the naked eye.

Finally, these results are absolutely correlated with the results of exit polls by majoritarian districts. Imagine the situation. when a voter massively votes for the ruling party and for an opposition candidate is somewhat difficult, this is possible only in exceptional cases.

Now let’s look at the exit poll results in the majoritarian districts.

		Georgian Dream		Opposition
1	Krtsanisi	Beka Odisharia	35%	Shalva Shavgulidze	46%
2	Vake	Nodar Turdzeladze	33%	Elene Khoshtaria	47%
3	Saburtalo	David Sergeenko	35%	Aleko Elisashvili/ Badri Japaridze	21% / 19%
4	Isani	Kakha Kakhishvili	35%	Khatia Dekanoidze	32%
5	Samgori	Sozar Subari	33%	Levan Khabeishvili	49%
6	Didube-Chugureti	Giorgi Volski	33%	Zurab Japaridze	35%
7	Nadzaladevi	Mikeil Kavelashvili	35%	Shalva Natelashvili	33%
8	Gldani	Levan Kobiashvili	39%	Nika melia	53%
9	Gurjaani, Sagarejo	David Songulashvili	43%	Levan Bezhashvili	38%
10	Telavi, Akhmeta, Kvareli, Lagodekhi	Irakli Kadagishvili	45%	Giorgi Botkoveli	42%
11	Mtskheta, Kazbegi, Dusheti, Tianeti	Kereselidze	39%	Caesar Chocheli	45%
12	Rustavi, Gradabani	Nino Latsabidze	31%	David Kirkitadze	51%
13	Marneuli, Gardabani	Zaur Dargali	49%	Azer Suleimanov	36%
14	Bolnisi, Dmanisi, Tetritskaro, Tsalka	Gogi Meshveliani	56%	Kakha Okriashvili	37%
15	Gori	Georgi Khodjevanishvili	39%	Badri Basishvili	39%
16	Khashuri, Kareli	Dumbadze	37%	Nato Chkeidze	46%
17	Akhaltsikhe, Borjomi Aspindza	Anton Obolashvili	58%	Chitashvili	30%
18	Akhalkalaki, Ninotsminda	Samvel Manukian	75%	Melik Raisian	5%
19	Ambrolauri, Oni, Tsageri, Lentekhi	Gocha enukidzе	61%	Dilar Khabuliani	15%
20	Sachkhere, Chiatura, Kharagauli	Paata Kvizhinadzе	59%	David Kapanadze	23%
21	Zetafoni, Baghdadi, Terjola, Tkibuli	Bezhan Tsakadze	49%	Gocha Getsadze	25%
22	Samtredia, Tskhaltubo, Vani, Khoni	Givi Chichinadze	46%	Nanuka Zhorzholiani	36%
23	Kutaisi	Zaza Lominadze	29%	Grigol Vashadze	50%
24	Ozurgeti, Lanchkhuti, Chokhatauri	Vasil Chigogidzе	52%	Manuchar Kvirkvelia	16%
25	Abasha, Martvili, Tsalenjikha, Chkhorotsku	Aleksandre motselaria	45%	Roman Pipia	41%
26	Poti, Khobi, Senaki	Irakli Khakhubia	49%	Murtaz Zodelava	32%
27	Zugdidi	Irakli Chikovani	35%	Malkhaz Jalagonia	49%
28	Batumi	Resan Konteslidze	35%	Levan Varshalomidze	39%
29	Kobuleti	Zaal Mikeladze	54%	Bondo Tedoradze	35%
30	Khelvachauri, Keda, Shuakhevi, Khulo	Anzor Bokvadze	46%	Misha Bolkvadze	32%

In the last elections, Georgian Dream won practically no problems in all majoritarian districts. Today the situation is somewhat different, to put it mildly. According to the IPSOS exit poll, the ruling party managed to win only in seven out of thirty constituencies, the opposition wins in two. Georgian Dream has an advantage in 11 constituencies, the opposition in 9. This means that even if Dream gets 18 majoritarian members into parliament, it will not have enough votes to form a coalition, given the results on party lists. Moreover, in the event that the ruling party fails to gain a majority on party lists, one can absolutely accurately predict the victory of the opposition in the overwhelming majority of constituencies, if not all. However, this is true in the opposite direction.

And now the most important thing – despite the fact that the results presented here are close to the real ones, it is far from the fact that the official results will be exactly like that. And here everything depends solely on the opposition, more precisely on the United National Movement, the only party that has a serious party infrastructure in the regions. Now, as I write these lines on the clock, one hour twenty minutes, and the CEC has not yet published a single bulletin. But information about attempts at falsification, and in some areas “unexpectedly” turn off the light. The fact that the CEC is delaying publication is another sign that the authorities do not know what to do. But does the opposition know what to do? This is the main question, on the answer to which the future of the country depends.

Гела Васадзе, (Gela Vasadze) Georgian Strategic Analysis Center GSAC