GSAC Analytics

Official data of the CEC. But there is a nuance

Official data of the CEC. But there is a nuance

So the CEC published data from 70% of polling stations, and they look like this:

Georgian Dream48,36%
UNM26,35%
European Georgia3,79%
Lelo3,27%
Alliance of Patriots3,20%
Strategy Aghmashenebeli3,16%
Girchi3,07%
Citizens1,40%
Labor party1,01%

This means that taking into account those deputies from the ruling party, whose victory has already been announced in the majority districts, the ruling party can form a government without any problems.

This is, so to speak, the formal result of the current elections, and then, as in a well-known anecdote – but there is a nuance. And yes, there really is a nuance. For all eight years, while the “Georgian Dream” was in power, after each election, the opposition unanimously shouted about fraud. What the opposition then called falsification was in fact the use of administrative resources, rude, often in violation of current legislation, but it was precisely the use of administrative resources, and not falsification. Today, when there are very many signs that the authorities really went to falsifications, it turned out that “Wolves, wolves” should be shouted only when wolves are actually available. However, now it is no longer of fundamental importance.

Another thing is important – does the opposition have options for action and what will they do? Let’s start with the fact that there are seven electoral subjects that the authorities themselves legitimized as political forces that got into parliament. To these political forces, I would add Nino Burjanadze’s “United Georgia”, which, for sure, also got into parliament. So eight against two, where the Alliance of Patriots is unlikely to be active.

All these political forces had election observers; they all recorded violations and election results. The National Movement has a powerful regional network. In theory, all violations should be recorded, and if so, then this can be the basis for the opposition’s non-recognition of the elections. Most likely, all nongovernmental organizations will have negative comments about the elections. However, the main thing, of course, is the protocols and official complaints. The opposition claims that they have sufficient grounds to prove the falsifications. But so far we are talking only about 170 complaints about violations, which is, let’s face it, nothing at all. However, the opposition can always declare that they were simply not allowed to write complaints, but this does not negate the need to present evidence in a different form.

The next point is the international recognition of the elections. It also depends on the opposition and the civil sector. Not a single European country, let alone the United States, will recognize these elections as legitimate if the opposition and non-governmental organizations provide sufficient evidence that they were not. The opposition spectrum, and especially the “European Georgia” and the “National Movement”, have enough international ties to convey information to the partner countries of Georgia. And here it is clear that if they have these data, they will be presented, and if not, the opposition will have to blame only itself for this.

The element of street protests in this scenario is mandatory and without it it is impossible to imagine effective opposition to the authorities. In the current conditions, the form of street protests can become decisive only in the case of full implementation of what was discussed above. Without a serious legal basis proving falsification, and without presenting this data to Western partners, street protests themselves can have little effect. This is a necessary but insufficient condition.

Now, apparently, the opposition is determined to categorically reject the election results. What red lines are the opposition parties ready to go to? If those opposition parties that officially entered parliament, present evidence of fraud and on the basis of this do not recognize the elections, resort to various forms of protest and refuse to enter such a parliament, this is one alignment, and if they limit themselves to indignation, then as you understand, absolutely other. The choice is theirs.

As for the overall results for the country, there weren’t particularly good options here, and now there are even fewer of them. Obviously. that we will have a very hard winter and spring, and it is not a fact that the summer will get better. If the election results are recorded in the state in which they are presented in the table above, this will mean a number of extremely unpleasant moments for the country. The legitimacy of the authorities will decrease, the ruling party will have a very unstable majority, which can collapse at the first serious political crisis. The power may change in the next six months or a year.

Thus, in addition to a crisis in the health care system and an economic crisis with severe social consequences, we receive a permanent threat of a political crisis. A very dangerous picture, given the external risks facing the country.

Гела Васадзе, (Gela Vasadze) Georgian Strategic Analysis Center GSAC