GSAC Analytics

Self-isolation of the Dream

Self-isolation of the Dream

If you enter, you will regret, if you do not enter, you will regret it anyway … The opposition today is in a similar situation, because because of the bulimia of the authorities, which has grown into the chronic madness of the Georgian authorities, which corresponds to a not very beautiful, but eloquent word – gluttony, the authorities made a choice that put the country between Turkmenization and revolution. Consequently, consent to enter parliament, as well as refusal to enter parliament, is just the beginning of a long and stubborn struggle. But since the decision has been made and the opponents of the Dream unanimously reject parliamentary mandates, let’s talk about the difficulties that arise from this decision.

The opposition’s choice is clear: against the backdrop of massive protests in parliament, leaving Dream alone in parliament, just like the communist party of Soviet times, will be a signal to both the Georgian society and the international community that the entire political spectrum and most of the population do not recognize election fraud. reject authoritarianism to the end and fight for early, fair elections. Even the Dream government will not be able to withstand such pressure in the face of an uncontrollable pandemic, severe winter, economic crisis, and will be forced to surrender. The result is achievable, but it is clear that the opposition will need strong public and international support, along with long-term, unprecedented unity.

Since we agree that this is a long journey, the first and foremost challenge will be to maintain unity. All the more so if Georgian Dream turned blackmail into its main weapon and left them without state funding. It is difficult for eight political forces with different political tasks, financial situation or vision to resist to the end the temptation of deputy seats. And if even one of them enters parliament, everything will crumble down to pieces.

If the unanimity of the opposition persists, and the Dream in parliament remains alone, naturally, the political legitimacy of the legislature will face serious problems both within the country and abroad. However, it will be legal and able to function. It will be difficult for the West to recognize the election results without a legal basis. Given the rigged elections and the lack of a legal mechanism to correct them, this will be clear evidence that Georgia is not a young democracy, but a young autocracy. That would put Washington and Brussels at least in an absurd position. Because the West, in order to cheer us up, despite its many shortcomings, has been proving for decades that Georgia is a leader in the region and a “beacon of democracy.”

Therefore, if the opposition wants to receive and maintain the support of the West, it must exhaust the legal mechanisms as much as possible in order to clearly prove that electoral fraud was large-scale, and only then or in parallel to put forward political demands.

At the same time, it is necessary to raise the degree on the street, and in order for the rallies to work, financial resources, experienced activists, the sympathy of the majority and the sacrifice of the minority are needed. If all this is well planned and organized, it will cause serious inconvenience to many members of the government’s team and even Ivanishvili himself. At the same time, the protest must be peaceful, but aggressive. Great care is also required here, because if a peaceful protest escalates into any form of violence, such as an invasion of government buildings, it will immediately be considered a criminal act not only by the government, but also by Western partners, which will help the Dream government suppress the protests and motivate the arrest of opposition leaders. … In this case, the opposition’s success will already depend on whether the police and the army refuse to obey orders, which is less realistic in the current situation. In contrast to 2003, these structures, despite their special attitude towards the criminals of the Dream, are not as demoralized as they were then, they are well protected, remain loyal to the authorities and operate more or less effectively.

It is clear that this will be a long and tedious marathon, in which the side that will ultimately win will not only have more moral advantage, but also finances, endurance, willingness to make sacrifices and motivation, as well as greater public and international support. However, the longer this process lasts, the more the country and the population suffer.

There is also a much easier, shorter and relatively painless path for our international partners who are so concerned about Georgia’s democratic future and who have successfully pushed both the government and the opposition to an agreement on March 8, to get back in the process. Recount disputed areas fairly and transparently, undo what should be canceled, and adjust the election results so that they largely reflect the mood of the electorate.

And then watch the second round magnifying. However, this can only happen if our Western partners see that not only politicians want this, but also the people. And they can see it only on Sunday, November 8 at three o’clock in the afternoon, or rather, then the people can show them this.

Giorgi Targamadze, GSAC & Formula TV