GSAC Analytics

A short commentary on the Karabakh agreement

A short commentary on the Karabakh agreement

Results of hostilities in Karabakh:

-the capture of Shushi, part of Nagorno-Karabakh and the occupied regions

+ super-legitimization of power in Azerbaijan

-Stepanakert remains Stepanakert

+ severe political crisis in Armenia

– full and unconditional implementation of the Lavrov plan and the proposal of elements of the Goble plan in the Russian version + RF showed once again what is a real force in the South Caucasus

We will find out in the next few hours how real the talks about the appearance of Turkish troops in the region and what status they will have. Azerbaijan has an asset in the liberation of the occupied regions, in a liability – a possible “Tskhinvalization” of the conflict. As a result, Armenia has no assets, except for the fact that Stepanakert found itself “beyond friendly bayonets.” However, this is a very dubious asset.

Gela Vasadze, GSAC