GSAC Analytics

Has Azerbaijan achieved its goals?

Has Azerbaijan achieved its goals?

What could have been is already a question from the field of philosophy, and even there, according to Hegel, reality is a reasonable necessity. Let’s put it this way – all sides in this war had their own goals. There were exactly four parties – Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia and Turkey.

Has Azerbaijan achieved its goals? Let’s imagine that on the morning of September 27 the citizens of Azerbaijan are told how the war ended – what would be the reaction of the majority? I think most would be happy. On the other hand, if yesterday evening the same citizens of Azerbaijan were offered the option of the current status quo, the majority would probably refuse.

However, today we have what we have. It is obvious that Azerbaijan and Turkey did not have sufficient resources to withstand the pressure of the Russian Federation. In general, for Azerbaijan, the result of hostilities, of course, is a victory. But you won not a war, but a battle. The presence of Russian peacekeepers in the conflict region makes it practically impossible to completely resolve it in favor of Azerbaijan before the systemic crisis in the Russian Federation. But the opposite scenario with provocations from the Russian Federation a la Georgia-2008 is quite possible. And this cannot but be understood by the leadership of Azerbaijan. 

The Russian Federation has solved the main issue for itself – providing access to transit capacities of Azerbaijan and has tied Armenia even more to itself. This is a new political reality in the region, which all regional, and perhaps not only regional, players will have to reckon with.

Gela Vasadze, a comment to the Baku Press Club portal