GSAC Analytics

Karabakh front. Save face to the Kremlin or “siryzation” the conflict. Part 2

Karabakh front. Save face to the Kremlin or “siryzation” the conflict. Part 2

Not final, as it may seem now …

I don’t have much to add to my post on October 31st. Is that to fix the launch of the scenario, which was then unacceptable to either Baku or Yerevan.

Moscow was able to push through its “peacekeeping” version of the settlement, more precisely, the military presence on the territory of Azerbaijan. Of all the points of the night paper, the only one has been promptly completed – the Russian “peacekeepers” are already in Karabakh. The Turks must protect Karabakh from “tskhinvalization”. By the way, they are not in the signed night paper, but I think they will appear in the “peacekeeping center to control the ceasefire.” The “Siryzation” scenario is optional, but relevant. It may come at the cost of Ankara’s demonopolization of the Kremlin’s role in arbitrating the conflict.

Moscow has unequivocally lost the “war of the military trade” and the “defense industry” (the Chemezovs and Rogozins are in shock). But the Kremlin, in its logic, launched the formula of “defeat of both sides”. I see no point in decoding.

Azerbaijan celebrates victory and is doing the right thing. The Army’s successes at the front, unprecedented in terms of timing, execution and results, rigidly dictated the settlement agenda, but did not provide immunity to Moscow’s peacekeeping virus. Further, I fully subscribe to the verdict of Tofig Zulfugarov: “The second phase of hostilities in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict has ended (…). But this is not the end, and we will continue to lead our struggle for the full restoration of sovereignty. ” I have nothing to add here.

The signing of the night paper took place against the background of the incident with the downed Russian helicopter. Shot down on Armenian territory, but Azerbaijanis (officially recognized) a kilometer from the border with Nakhchivan. If anyone thinks that this incident started or especially accelerated the process, then it is not so. The leak about the format of the “peacekeepers” with “two corridors” went on for at least a day at respected and not so much sites. But the helicopter is still interesting. Was there really “one who (not) shot”?

The Kremlin needed a night acceleration, rather, because of Armenia, which, as expected, got bogged down in the abyss of protests with unpredictable consequences. This is, whatever one may say, surrender and a natural reaction to it. And this is Moscow’s headache. There are many ways to lose Armenia.

In Armenia, more than once, not twice, I think, they remembered Bismarck with his “Russia” and “the price of the paper”. It is important, more than ever, for Azerbaijan to remember.

Health and victory over illness to the seer Paul Goble.

Plus I remembered the immortal from Nikolai Ozerov: “Our hockey players only needed a victory … The victory of the Czechs over the Swedes, and our hockey players achieved it.”

I bow my head to the dead soldiers in the trenches on both sides, regardless of ranks and ranks …

Volodimir Kopchak, CDACR