GSAC Analytics

Tamaz Hongjua: A Preview to a Large Election Study

Tamaz Hongjua: A Preview to a Large Election Study

I am now preparing a large study on the election results. I decided that the right approach was to search from small to large. Fortunately, I am not a politician, so I can quietly “dig” without slogans.

I certainly support the slogan “re-election at any cost”. I even stood in front of CESKO for him. But my “boring scientist” always wins, and that’s why I decided to see how many parliamentary seats can really be pulled out from under the asses of the “Georgian dream” without re-election. Moreover, in terms of the maximum evidence base for this.

My eyes fell on the majoritarian with the most borderline passing result. It immediately became clear that in all these constituencies, the “Georgian Dream” has the maximum difference between the number of votes in the majority and proportional parts. Honestly, I expected it.

District 13 1333 votes difference
District 25 difference of 2212 votes
District 29 difference 1673 votes

Firstly, this is a rather large difference, which is very difficult to explain logically. And secondly, this is quite a bit more than is necessary to pass their candidate in the first round.

Further more interesting, I lined up the sections as the difference in votes decreased. In constituency No. 13, precinct No. 13.22.69 took the first line with a difference of 234 votes. The first thing I did was go to look at the protocol. Even my eyes refuse to believe in such impudence. I ask readers to look at it personally (link in the comments). The number in the protocol differs from the number on the website (200 votes). I suspect there are quite a few of them. That is, even without re-account, the result of the dream is different. At least these three chairs must be pulled out from under them without options.

In fact, by canceling the results in only 10 precincts, they immediately lose 3 mandates.

Well, it can’t go without bloopers.

1. As I said, I went from small to large. I don’t think all other sites are doing well. But I think that the opposition should start with something concrete and unwind this story as it comes in. Showing the consistency of falsifications at every step.

2. Even if it is possible to turn the tide in these three districts, this will greatly undermine the position of the “Georgian Dream”.

3. The opposition should seek to postpone the second round. It is one thing not to take part, another thing not to prevent a terrible crime. Compared to what the “Georgian Dream” plans to do on November 21st, all the falsifications are just a piece of cake. When I read yesterday at Gela’s that they were planning a lockdown, I didn’t believe it a bit. Really, I thought, they decided to pause before the ninth circle of hell? No, they haven’t decided!

Tamaz Khunjua, GSAC