Plahotniuc’s script for Georgia
In the near future, the diplomatic corps is preparing to publish proposals to both the government and the opposition in the negotiations following the parliamentary elections. As far as I know, there is no clause on new elections in these proposals. This is understandable, common sense tells us that Ivanishvili will never agree to new elections. But let’s imagine the incredible, Ivanishvili agreed and in six months we will have new elections. If at the same time the state is in the hands of Ivanishvili, we will get approximately the same result as today. Well, yes, they will remove the current composition of the CEC and appoint new ones, and what will this change? State security and “street” will not be connected to the elections? Will there be no administrative resource and voter bribery? That is, the opposition can fall into its own trap here. If Ivanishvili holds the next elections, the result will inevitably be the same as now.
Earlier we heard that if there is a proportional system, it will change the situation and ensure fair elections. Anyone could have guessed. that they will go to such falsifications. They will go for this and for the worse, the lack of values allows you to do whatever you want. Based on this, the way out of the situation is as follows. First, the opposition should under no circumstances legitimize this parliament. This is the deciding factor. Clear. that it is quite difficult to keep the energy of protest – winter, covid, the most severe economic crisis. But there is no need for grandiose protests. Practice has shown that small, creative actions are quite effective, and quite sufficient to demonstrate to Ivanishvili that he is no longer running the state, but his company. This must be done in order to constantly remind everyone that what is happening in the country is a multiplication by zero of all state and democratic institutions.
And second, now the new Biden administration is staffed with very interesting people, these people have very good contacts both with our opposition and with the civil sector. And it is with these people that we need to talk about Plahotniuc’s scenario for Georgia. If nothing threatens Ivanishvili’s personal well-being, nothing will happen. Everything else is fantasy and self-deception. this person uses all possible and impossible options in order to stay in power. In all other cases, we will all play by his rules.
There are no taboo topics and forbidden conversations in the West. One can and should speak openly with Western partners, directly explain the current situation and prove oneself right. This is normal in their paradigm. We were told in 2003 – go to parliament, and then it was the new government that was given carte blanche to build democratic institutions. Today, the same thing is happening – pressure must be exercised both from within and from outside. You just need to show it. that the elections held by Ivanishvili will always have the same result, regardless of whether Tamar Zhvania is the head of the CEC or not. What’s the difference, Tamar Zhvania is a symbolic figure, everyone knows perfectly well that the elections are conducted by the state security. It is with these conditions of the game that we should not agree, and this is the scenario that Bidzina Ivanishvili fears most of all. Any other scenario will simply be ineffective.
Today it is necessary to announce at least the outline of the opposition’s plan. it is necessary to develop an anti-crisis plan, which the opposition will implement in the event of its coming to power, so that it is clear why all this is needed. In no case should there be expectations of huge rallies, it is difficult, expensive and, as practice has shown, ineffective. Actions are of course necessary, but small, frequent and creative, in order to demonstrate to the whole world that Georgia will not put up with it. what’s happening. And of course, you cannot create expectations that now. in a week, in a month Bidzina Ivanishvili will run away and the country will be happy. You need to understand that this is a long and stubborn struggle. Only closer to spring there will be opportunities for organizing external pressure, at the same time, the one-party parliament in the conditions of the economic and humanitarian crisis will look very bad. and this will also be an important factor. At the same time, it is necessary to correctly place accents in the work with the same diplomatic corps. And most importantly – the opposition must honestly tell itself and the population – this person will not leave in another way, he has already lost his choice and did not admit defeat, if he loses ten elections, he will not admit defeat ten times. Fighting through institutions is impossible today, because. as Zurab Japaridze correctly said, we have no institutions left. This is what the opposition leaders must realize and convey to both our citizens and foreign partners.
Nodar Kharshiladze, GSAC