GSAC Аналитика

About covid and elections

About covid and elections

Many are asking for comment on the statistics of covid and some are asking to talk about electoral fraud. Unfortunately, there is a sorely lack of time to write to Facebook. In addition, in this situation, I consider it unethical for myself to comment on the epidemic. When I made forecasts in September and tried to change something, it was ok. Now, when the covid is already outside the door, writing: “I told you so” is definitely not mine. But a few reasons that I want to share were still found. Moreover, some of them are optimistic.

Recently, the Minister of Health started talking about positive trends. It was actively picked up by epidemiologists. They saw joy in the fact that as the number of tests increased, the number of positive results grew disproportionately. Joy, frankly, is dubious. Ideally, do 10-20 tests for one positive (i.e. 50-100 thousand in Georgia). They barely brought the testing volume to 20 thousand and boast that now not every third test is positive, but every fourth. They suggest that we solve the Byes equation to find out how many people are still sick? Sounds terrifying. Their comments sound no less terrifying, so we don’t look at the numbers on Monday. After all, these are numbers after the weekend, and on weekends the number of tests is reduced by three times.

Nevertheless, I see some positive changes:

1. Apparently, we have really reached a certain equilibrium level of daytime infections. The common solution to the SEIR model is the sigmoid. It looks like we switched from its exponential part to linear. What is the reason and how long it will last remains in question. There are several options. But they have nothing to do with the actions of the authorities.

2. A much more positive fact is that the mortality rate has almost halved. Even calculated with the correct formula. Until recently, the mortality rate was more than 2%. Now it is 1.2%. If this is true, then this is super news! Half as many people die! And if this is not true, and the authorities know about it, then this is disastrously bad. Sooner or later we will find out about it.

Well, and not to get up twice.

I have attached a graph to the post that explains why the opposition does not enter parliament. This is a scatter plot of plots using the Kisling-Shpilkin method (proportional elections). Red dots – all opposition, blue dots – “dream”. Trend lines are color coded.

Tamaz Khunjua, GSAC