GSAC Аналитика

News of the Caucasus. Armenia – a way out of the crisis. Georgia – intelligence officers and diplomats. Azerbaijan – maneuvers and arrests.

News of the Caucasus. Armenia – a way out of the crisis. Georgia – intelligence officers and diplomats. Azerbaijan – maneuvers and arrests.

Armenia

Another active phase of the political crisis has ended in Yerevan. The main hero of the occasion, Chief of the General Staff Onik Gasparyan was retiring, his duties will be performed by Lieutenant General Stepan Galstyan. In general, Artak Davtyan will be appointed to the post of chief of the general staff, who, however, has not yet been approved by the president. Now is the time to ask – doctor, sho tse bulo?

Let’s take a look at the behavior of the parties during the crisis. So, the characters and performers. Active opposition, they are also representatives of the former government and who joined. Barely smelling the smell of blood, they tried to bring a critical mass of people out into the street – it did not work, it did not work to call the army into disobedience, it did not work to block the work of the parliament – if it did, it was only partially, it didn’t work in general, to provide effective support to the head of the NSG – it didn’t work, send the government resigned – did not work.

Now about the power – to pretend that nothing happened – it didn’t work, to declare what was happening as a military coup – it didn’t work, to send Onik Gasparyan to resign – it didn’t work right away, to release the crisis on the brakes – it worked.

A separate case is the president. Of course, he is also a power, but different. At first, evil tongues on the part of the authorities argued that Armen Sargsyan had betrayed Pashinyan and supported the putschists. Now evil tongues from the opposition claim that the president betrayed Armenia, no more, no less, and sold himself to Pashinyan, and at the same time to the Turks and Azerbaijanis. But there is another version of the president’s somewhat strange behavior. Being an experienced politician, and Armen Sargsyan is the only experienced politician in the current Armenian government, the President perfectly understood the threats and risks of the current situation. Another shock from the change of power initiated by the military could undoubtedly become too heavy a blow for the Armenian society, which is already in a state of post-traumatic stress disorder. Under these conditions, it was necessary to reduce the degree of voltage. And to reduce it so that hot heads on both sides cool down and regain the ability to think rationally. How did the president manage it? The first is undoubtedly, the second is doubtful. But the result is important. And the result is as follows. First, no one is going anywhere anymore. Secondly, the need for new elections is obvious to both supporters and opponents of Pashinyan. The bottom line is that everyone calmed down.

At least, at a meeting with the military, Nikol Pashinyan even thanked Onik Gasparyan, whom Davjyan, that is, a traitor, had recently called for his service. And he did the right thing, perhaps none of the Armenian generals had such tragic times that Gasparyan had to go through. At least that’s why the head of government should have said thank you to this guy, which he did. And how sincerely does not matter. By the way, Onik Gasparyan himself stressed in his statement that he considers his dismissal to be unconstitutional.

And also the head of the UNICEF mission, Marine Clark-Hatting, was expelled from Yerevan. Why? What for? Honestly, I didn’t understand. The explanation of the press secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Anna Naghdalyan, who literally stated the following – Shortcomings in the fulfillment of her mandate and the lack of cooperation in the style of work of the UNICEF representative in Armenia, Marine Clark-Hatting, were problematic for the Armenian side, therefore the government of Armenia decided to terminate the activities of Clark-Hatting as representative of UNICEF in the Republic of Armenia, they explain little, or rather they do not explain anything. On these grounds, it is necessary to expel 80 percent of the diplomats working for us from the countries of the South Caucasus, if not more. Conspiracy whispers on social networks that Marin was spying in favor of Azerbaijan seem to be nonsense of people suffering from a severe form of schizophrenia. But where there is no reasonable explanation for what is happening, such whispering is inevitable.

Georgia

A lot has happened in Georgia over the past few days, but the main thing is that Naryshkin happened in Georgia. The statement by the head of the Russian foreign intelligence service is indeed very amusing, in terms of form. So it is in terms of content.

There are no questions about the content and style, a chased bureaucratic clerical style, without grammatical errors and unnecessary maxims. The main question is why Naryshkin. Such a statement would be more suitable for Maria Zakharova, well, purely from an aesthetic point of view. And then bam – Naryshkin.

So Sergei Evgenievich is a very difficult comrade. After all, a first-class state adviser, a fighter against the falsifiers of history and a person who graduated with a gold medal from a school with an artistic and aesthetic bias. But even this is not the main thing, today Sergey Naryshkin is the main Stirlitz of Russia, and something tells me that Stirlitz in seventeen moments of this spring can be ordered to survive.

The last time I enjoyed the epistolary genre of Sergei Evgenievich was during the second Karabakh war. Then he responded to the mutual accusations of the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides – “you are terrorists, no, you are terrorists”, in the spirit – “enough to argue, hot Caucasian guys, you are both terrorists, and remember – we appoint terrorists here.”

The letter about us is not as funny as about our neighbors – who is not aware of the activities of the Washington Regional Committee in our Palestinians. Our reaction of the parties is much more fun.

Those who are for the opposition – not well, you saw it, you saw it !!! – everyone said on the Mtavari TV channel, this is the main mouthpiece of the opposition in Georgia.

Those who are in favor of power – another proof that Moscow is playing up to the opposition and substituting the power – said everything on Imedi TV, the main mouthpiece of the Georgian authorities.

Well, really, what nonsense, really Naryshkin did not understand. That thereby exposes the Georgian authorities. I understood, of course, I understood, but firstly, there may be a chain from the series “you know that I know. What you know”, that is, Naryshkin knew that everyone would say that how is it like this, he substitutes the Dream. And secondly, this message was sent not to Georgia, but to the United States.

And now the questions:

1.On the same day, the Georgian Prime Minister met with the US Ambassador. Question – was Naryshkin’s statement made before or after this meeting?

2. What specific American demands are the Georgian authorities evading? Am I missing something or does Naryshkin know something?

3. When do the Americans plan to start systematic work to provide support to the opposition and at the same time undermine the positions of the “Georgian Dream? Where can you get your share?”

4. What kind of European partners are the Americans setting up partners to support the opposition?

5. What American instructions should the Georgian authorities follow so that they are left behind and not disturbed?

And finally, the main question, I bring it up separately – why, after such a statement by the head of the special service, one of the tasks of which is to conduct special operations abroad, the Security Council has not been convened, there is no statement by the Prime Minister, there is no appeal to partner countries, there is no special session of parliament at which the head of state security and the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs would have been heard on the question of the reaction to this miracle, no … But why there, we have, where you will not rush. there is nothing.

To top it all off, the lights went out in the European Parliament during the discussion of the issue of Georgia. I don’t know how often they have this and whether MEPs are familiar with the famous phrase – mascara light, which, by the way, has a continuation – throw a grenade.

Also, Danielson, a career diplomat of the 100th level, who was once responsible for negotiations on Turkish issues in the European Union, flew to us. That is, a seasoned fighter of the negotiation front, so hoping for a Viking’s herbivorousness is futile.

Danielson has already met with the president, prime minister, and the opposition. The Prime Minister quickly made a statement, in which he thanked the Swedish and the diplomat and, attention, stressed that a compromise would definitely be reached and he always tried to reach this compromise.

Danielson, who is very sympathetic and likable, also held a press conference, spoke about the challenges and risks, understanding his role in the process and called for unity. Whether the Viking has concrete proposals on how to get out of the crisis, he did not say, but promised to listen carefully to the parties. This is of course very good, but you can listen to our sides endlessly. About early elections and the question of releasing political prisoners, Danielson answered in the spirit of a Georgian saying – in order to see a dream, you must first fall asleep. So far, everything is clear, that nothing is clear. Attention was drawn to the cheerful combination of a shirt and a tie.

Azerbaijan

Thank God again, nothing terrible. There is no crisis, no confrontation, no fierce struggle between people who already hate each other as adults. It’s a sin not to be happy for your neighbors.

However, something is still happening. Take, for example, the large-scale operational-tactical exercises of the armed forces announced in mid-March. Up to 10 thousand military personnel, about 100 units of tanks and other armored vehicles and up to 200 rocket and artillery installations of various calibers, etc. will be involved in the exercises.

They will take place in mountainous and wooded areas with difficult terrain, the main attention will be paid to command and control of troops, bringing them to a state of combat readiness and regrouping.

During the exercise, which will last until March 18, the troops will carry out tasks to combat terrorist detachments (groups), as well as illegal armed groups and conduct counter-terrorism operations. About what and whom I think it is clear.

Farhad Mammadov, a well-known Azerbaijani analyst who for a long time headed the Center for Strategic Studies under the presidential administration of Azerbaijan, drew attention to the report of the First Channel, in which Karabakh was called an unrecognized republic. Farhad wrote that there is no unrecognized republic, and the Russian peacekeeping contingent is deployed on the territory of Azerbaijan and with the permission of Azerbaijan, and in general it turns out that Channel One is against Putin. It doesn’t work, bees cannot be against honey. And the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will not conduct any educational program for Channel One.

And that is why – the main problem in relations between almost all countries of the post-Soviet space with Moscow is that we forget about a simple fact – not a single state of the post-Soviet space in the Kremlin considers and has never considered an independent state. By the way, including the Baltic countries. The difference between the Baltic states and other post-Soviet countries for the Russian leadership is that, according to their version, the Baltic states are occupied by NATO, and we are their backyard, which in no case should repeat the fate of the Baltic states. That’s all the explanation. Oil painting.

And in Azerbaijan, the former head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic (NAR) Akhmed Akhmedov and the former Minister of Education of the Autonomous Republic Mamed Garibov were arrested. Akhmedov served as the Minister of Internal Affairs of the Autonomous Republic in 2000-2017. They are accused of embezzlement, and Mamed Garibov of misappropriation of funds. Garibov was appointed Minister of Education in February 2016 and dismissed in July 2018. They say the arrests of former ministers are connected with the general processes in Azerbaijan to punish the most odious and corrupt figures. This is how human glory passes – Sic transit gloria mundi.