GSAC Аналитика

Possible consequences of Naryshkin’s statement

Possible consequences of Naryshkin’s statement

Despite the fact that the whole country today is most worried about the audio recordings of Bera Ivanishvili, in my opinion we have a much more serious problem and headache. I mean the statement of the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin. Separately, we note the official statement published on the website of the special services entrusted to him.

This is the same Naryshkin, who almost at the public level oversaw Moscow’s actions in Moldova, Belarus, Ukraine and during the second Karabakh war. A person close to the owner of all Russia, Vladimir Putin.

And one more thing – Naryshkin made this statement during the period of the most acute political crisis in the country, practically taking on the functions of the head of the press service of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, whose functions are directly to voice the attitude of the leadership of the Russian Federation to events taking place abroad. The question is why and why now?

It is well known that the devil is always in the details. First, Naryshkin is the highest official of the intelligence service, which deals with operations abroad. Statements at this level are not so much a signal to Georgia as to the new US administration. An attempt to mark a new red line for Joe Biden’s team. The message is also understandable – leave Georgia alone, this is our zone of influence, we control everything we want there and will not allow you to interfere.

Of course, this is only a “good” wish of the Kremlin, but if we, in this case, we are talking about the Georgian people, do not show activity, we do not show both enemies and friends that we will not allow a change in foreign policy and interference in our affairs, this wish may well become reality.

Another aspect of this statement, you should not think that it is limited to Russian activities on this front, as is customary with their Russian special services, they always have a “plan B”, which is immediately put into effect if the master plan does not work. Today, with a high degree of probability, it is possible to predict the emergence of a pro-Russian new political force on the political arena, which will be much more attractive than the marginal and stupidly money-loving Alliance of Patriots. That is why, no matter how strange it may seem to the uninitiated, the Russian special services opened the financing channels for their counterparts a few months ago. After that, it became clear that “patriots” were being dumped, but as you know, a holy place is never empty. Someone has to replace them. The question is who?

And this is where the figure of former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia comes to mind first. And why not, the person worked for a long time and successfully in Moscow, and in a position that by itself presupposed close communication with the Russian political establishment. He chose a very good moment to leave in the most advantageous situation for the politician. public opposition to the arrest of Nika Melia undoubtedly added to the political points of Gakharia, who was already the top-rated figure among the Dream voters. Moreover, knowing about his imminent resignation, Gakharia did not sacrifice anything special. Today he has already begun to gather his team around him, including former deputy ministers of state security and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, as well as those people who made a career with his assistance, but were forced to leave their posts after his departure. The calculation is simple – to divide the Dream electorate and become a hero for an undecided voter.

Also noteworthy is the fact that today, without any elections and spending, he can form his faction in parliament. This faction will include people who got there in the last elections on his quota, including former governors and high-ranking officials.

The main question is how will Bidzina Ivanishvili react to this? It is not at all excluded. that he will only be glad. Wasn’t he when he was leaving, announcing the emergence of a “healthy” political force. able to compete with the Dream and even turn it into opposition.

Now about plan B. Another very promising figure is the figure of the current mayor of Tbilisi, Kakha Kaladze, who is now being pressed by the Kakhetian clan of the current Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili. After all, it is far from accidental that the star of world football has recently delicately distances himself from the actions of the authorities. It is understandable, the time is.

So we entered into a very interesting one. and at the same time a very dangerous period. I really hope so. that we can finally learn from our mistakes.

Lasha Bregvadze, GSAC